College Basketball Tournament: Regional Semifinal Spread, Total Trends for Sunday Games

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While March is winding down, the Madness isn’t close to finished. After taking a look at the odds and trends for Saturday’s Sweet 16 games, we move on to Sunday’s four contests.

The early game on Sunday (2:10 p.m. ET/11:10 a.m. PT) features the Sweet 16’s biggest spread. No. 1 Gonzaga (-1000 moneyline) is a 13.5-point favorite over No. 5 Creighton (+650 ML). This matchup also has Sunday’s highest total, as it’s currently positioned at 158.5.

“Gonzaga covered both times last week and we’re going to be buried on Gonzaga come Sunday,” said Nick Bogdanovich, Director of Trading for William Hill US. “We’ll need Creighton big, it’s possible that could be our biggest decision this weekend. It’s definitely not often that a team is a double-digit favorite in their first three tournament games, but Gonzaga is power rated so high this year and their offense looks unstoppable.”

Gonzaga is reeling in 70% of the total number of tickets and 78% of the total dollars wagered among all spread bets against Creighton, which is the highest percentage in both categories out of all teams playing on Sunday. One New Jersey bettor, though, has made a significant wager on the underdog to cover. A $13,000 bet was laid on Creighton +13 (-110) for a total potential payout of $24,818.18.

In the first of two Sunday games with a spread below three points, No. 1 Michigan and No. 4 Florida State square off at 5 p.m. ET/2 p.m. PT. After opening at -3, the Wolverines (-145 ML) are now listed at -2.5 over the Seminoles (+125 ML). The total has seen noticeable movement, dropping from 146.5 to 143.5.

“The public is leaning Michigan, but the sharps are on the dog,” Bogdanovich said. “Michigan played great last game, but this won’t be LSU’s defense they’re going up against on Sunday. Colorado had a really tough time getting any shot off against Florida State. Michigan’s got talent, but it’ll be interesting to see how they match up with Florida State’s length and athleticism.”

This is the only Sweet 16 showdown as of now where William Hill bettors are divided on both the spread and total. Michigan has the edge with 57% of the total number of tickets, whereas Florida State has the advantage with 59% of the total dollars wagered. Then the over is obtaining 57% of the total number of tickets while the under is drawing 72% of the total dollars wagered.

The two largest wagers on this game have both come in on the Seminoles. One Nevada bettor laid $11,153 on Florida State +3 (-120) for a total potential payout of $20,447.15, while another Nevada bettor put down $11,000 on Florida State +3 (-110) for a total potential payout of $21,000.

At 7:15 p.m. ET/4:15 p.m. PT, No. 2 Alabama will battle No. 11 UCLA. This is one of two Sweet 16 spreads that has moved by two points from its original number, as the Crimson Tide (-270 ML) went from -4.5 to -6.5 against the Bruins (+230 ML). The total has also shifted a decent amount, rising to 145.5 from 144.

“Alabama is just a monster,” Bogdanovich said. “They won the SEC, which is the second- or third-best conference in the country, and they did it in resounding fashion. Everyone saw what they did to Maryland last game. Both the sharps and masses are on Alabama, even with how good UCLA has looked.”

The majority of William Hill bettors are aligned on the spread and total for this head-to-head. Alabama has gotten 64% of the total number of tickets and 71% of the total dollars wagered, and the over has seized 64% of the total number of tickets and 81% of the total dollars wagered.

The final Sweet 16 affair at 9:45 p.m. ET/6:45 p.m. PT also has the shortest spread. No. 6 USC and No. 7 Oregon was first displayed at pick’em. After reaching as high as USC -2.5, the Trojans (-135 ML) are 2-point chalk over the Ducks (+115 ML).

“I think this will be a dead even bet game, I really do,” Bogdanovich said. “These two teams have opposite styles. When Oregon shoots the three well, they are really tough to stop. They looked phenomenal against Iowa. USC is more of a half-court team with all their height and [Evan] Mobley is a beast down low. I think both of them can beat Gonzaga if they play next round.”

It doesn’t get much more even regarding how William Hill bettors are wagering on this spread. Oregon has bagged 51% of the total number of tickets and USC has grabbed 54% of the total dollars wagered. There’s more agreement on the total, with the over amassing 69% of the total number of tickets and 70% of the total dollars wagered.

Check out William Hill’s latest odds and trends for every Sunday Sweet 16 spread and total below.

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