Pro Football Draft: Player Draft Position Prop Odds, Trends

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Who won’t be on the edge of their seat Thursday night? After months of speculation and mock drafts, the first 32 picks of the 2021 NFL Draft will finally unfold before our very eyes.

But which players will be drafted where? William Hill Nevada has 11 player draft position props available, meaning you could make the first round even more interesting.

Since William Hill released this batch of prop bets on April 10, five players have seen their number change by one slot. With the draft just a couple days away, let’s take a look at the latest odds movement and betting action for the player draft position props.

Just one player with single-digit draft position odds has shifted from his original number. After opening at 6.5 (over +135/under -155), LSU wideout Ja’Marr Chase is down to 5.5 His under is still favored at -145, while the over is priced at +125. Two other players are also currently set at 5.5: Florida tight end Kyle Pitts (over +180/under -210) and Oregon offensive lineman Penei Sewell (over -170/under +150).

“Ja’Marr Chase has gotten really good action,” said Nick Bogdanovich, Director of Trading for William Hill US. “I don’t think he’ll go 4, but 5 is a legitimate spot for him. The Bengals reuniting him with [Joe] Burrow would be a cool story. Bengals also don’t have A.J. Green anymore, so Chase could fill that slot. I think that’s what everyone is banking on who is taking his under.”

Chase isn’t the only wideout to have experienced an alteration to his number. Alabama burner Jaylen Waddle has dropped too, swinging from 11.5 to 10.5. Waddle’s over is favored, though, at -135 and his under is at +115.

The other players who have moved a spot are Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons (11.5 to 12.5), South Carolina cornerback Jaycee Horn (13.5 to 12.5) and Alabama running back Najee Harris (29.5 to 28.5).

Parsons’ draft position prop has had the most lopsided betting action at William Hill in terms of total dollars wagered. His over has reeled in 92% of the total dollars wagered, and that side has also snagged 68% of the total number of tickets.

“Micah Parsons is supposedly the top linebacker in the draft, but they’ve been betting over on him for sure,” Bogdanovich said. “They think that the teams that are picking defense early will opt for Patrick Surtain [II] or Jaycee Horn, one of those top cornerbacks. So in our betting world, his stock has fallen a little.”

Speaking of Surtain II, his under has been the most popular side of any player draft position props by total number of tickets. That under has grabbed 78% of the total number of tickets and 83% of the total dollars wagered. In fact, Parsons over and Surtain II under are the only two sides so far that have attracted at least 80% of the total dollars wagered.

Yet, the biggest wagers on any player draft props have come in on a pair of SEC pass-catchers. A $4,000 bet was placed on Pitts under 5.5 (-160) for a total potential payout of $6,500 and Chase under 6.5 (-220) for a total potential payout of $5,818.20.

Even with that notable wager on under 5.5, 59% of the total dollars wagered are on Pitts over 5.5. Pitts’ draft position has drawn the second-most money of any 2021 NFL draft betting market at William Hill, only trailing which player will be drafted third overall.

Check out William Hill’s latest odds and trends for every player draft position prop available below.

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