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Unders cashed in three of the four Divisional Round affairs this past weekend, meaning it’s all tied up at 5-5 for playoff totals with three contests remaining.
Despite potential frigid January temperatures at outdoor stadiums in the Midwest, both Conference Championship totals are north of 50 thanks to four high-powered offenses taking center stage.
The total that has shifted the most from the opening number is the AFC Championship between the Bills and Chiefs. After first being listed at 51.5, it has jumped up two points and is currently at 53.5. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is still in concussion protocol, and his status is the key for determining where this total will end up.
“All the action in this one will come the last three days and all will be based on Mahomes’ health,” said Nick Bogdanovich, Director of Trading for William Hill US. “This shot up immediately to 54, 55 before coming back down to 53.5. There’s weather involved here too, so between weather and health, we’ll figure out the best number. I think it’ll go back up to 55 if Mahomes is in regardless. It just figures to be a high game. Buffalo’s not running, they’re just throwing every down too. The people will bet this game over unless the weather is just so, so bad.”
Even with all of the uncertainty surrounding this showdown, 67% of the total number of tickets are on the over. William Hill bettors, though, are divided in terms of total dollars wagered, where it’s a 50-50 split in that category.
Yet, the NFC matchup has drawn the largest Conference Championship total bet thus far at William Hill.
The total for Buccaneers at Packers has dropped from 52 to its current number of 51, with one Nevada bettor placing $11,000 on under 51.5 (-110) for a total potential payout of $21,000.
Highlighted by that noteworthy wager, the majority of William Hill bettors think the total is too high early on. The under for Buccaneers at Packers has captured 51% of the total number of tickets and 71% of the total dollars wagered.
But will the over get more love closer to kickoff?
“I think it’s just going to be cold there,” Bogdanovich said. “Unless there’s wind, people will bet this over. Both Brady and Rodgers play great in the cold. They also do such a great job with the field there in Green Bay. Obviously both totals are in the 50s and the public would still love to bet both these games over, so we’ll likely need the unders unless there’s real bad weather at either place.”
Check out William Hill’s latest odds and trends for the 2021 NFL Conference Championship totals below.