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The 49ers triumphed 37-20 this past January over the Packers to reach the Super Bowl. These foes will meet for the first time since that NFC Championship matchup tonight, though the teams will look much different due to how many players are out with injuries and COVID-19 precautions.
One player who is questionable to play is Packers running back Aaron Jones. Jones last played on October 18 against the Buccaneers and has been dealing with a calf injury ever since. With backups Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon on the COVID-19/reserve list, Green Bay is left with Tyler Ervin and Dexter Williams at tailback.
“If Jones is healthy, he’s definitely worth at least half a point,” said Nick Bogdanovich, Director of Trading for William Hill US. “Maybe even a point honestly, which is rare for a running back. He’s been such a dominant back, and he’d be such an upgrade over Ervin and Williams. My gut’s telling me that it’s a short week and they’ll just give him extra time to get healthy. But you never know, a body’s a body, he might feel good when he warms up.”
In Week 9 of Thursday Night Football, the Packers are currently 7-point road favorites (-320 moneyline) at William Hill. The 49ers are +260 to win the game outright and the total now lies at 48.5.
“San Francisco’s decimated to the max, but Green Bay has their share of issues too,” said Bogdanovich. “We opened Green Bay -2.5, now it’s up to -7. That’s one of the biggest spread swings this season. The Green Bay decision last week [against the Vikings] was insane, one of our biggest of the year. We were Vikings fans then, and we’re definitely 49er fans tonight.”
William Hill bettors are mostly backing the favorite here, as Green Bay has received 85% of the total number of tickets and 90% of the total dollars wagered among all spread bets vs. San Francisco. Additionally, the Packers have generated 77% of the total number of tickets and 94% of the total dollars wagered for all moneyline bets tonight.
One Nevada bettor placed $20,250 on Packers -6.5 (-135) for a total potential payout of $35,250. That is the largest wager as of now at William Hill for this TNF matchup.
William Hill bettors are far more split on the total, which has seen a shift of multiple points as well from its original number.
“I would imagine that come game time we’ll end up needing the under,” Bogdanovich said. “But the professionals obviously think that all the skill people out will hurt these offenses. We opened it at 51, and it was bet down pretty good.”
While the over has gotten 54% of the total number of tickets, it’s actually the under that leads the way in total dollars wagered at 62%.
Check out William Hill’s latest odds and trends for tonight’s Packers vs. 49ers game below.