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William Hill Nevada released futures for player yardage leaders in passing, rushing and receiving at the end of June. Already there’s been plenty of movement, including a new favorite in one market and a new co-favorite in another.
Patrick Mahomes has stayed put at +500 from when he opened as the favorite, yet another signal-caller has joined him at that price. After originally being listed at 10/1, Dak Prescott has moved down to +500.
“Usually the person who leads the league in passing is on a mediocre team with a bad defense,” said Nick Bogdanovich, Director of Trading for William Hill US. “Then they just volume throw to death. Dallas’ defense was so bad last year that Dak was throwing a lot. Obviously Dallas wants to avoid that this year, they have two good running backs and went defense in the draft. So we may not see the same Dak who was throwing like 50 times a game.”
Prescott leads the way in total number of tickets (13%) and total dollars wagered (17%) thus far, while Justin Herbert (13/1) ranks second with 12% and 15% respectively.
The new sole favorite is for receiving yards leader, where Calvin Ridley leapfrogged seven different pass-catchers to gain his spot atop the board.
Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, DK Metcalf, Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, Michael Thomas and Davante Adams all opened with the lowest odds at 12/1. Ridley was tied for the eighth-lowest odds at 15/1 with Keenan Allen before swinging over to 10/1.
“I can see why Ridley is now the favorite,” Bogdanovich said. “Without Julio [Jones], he’s clearly the top wide receiver on a team that figures to be throwing a lot. We don’t know what [Kyle] Pitts is going to do as a rookie. He figures to be good, but it’s obviously a big step up to the NFL.”
Ridley has collected 6% of the total number of tickets and 8% of the total dollars wagered. Diggs is first in total number of tickets at 8%, while A.J. Brown is tops in total dollars wagered at 11%. Brown opened at 200/1 and has already dropped considerably to 40/1.
“Brown was probably priced too high from the start,” Bogdanovich said. “We lose close to six figures with him right now. But it’ll be hard for him to lead the league in receiving when you’ve got Derrick Henry, who is the favorite to lead the league in rushing. It’s almost impossible to have both. Tennessee just isn’t that much of a throwing team, then throw in that Julio is going to get his fair share. He is a great receiver, I just don’t see him leading the league in yards in his situation.”
Check out the opening and current favorites at William Hill Nevada to lead the NFL in passing and receiving yards below.