2021 Home Run Derby: Odds, Trends, Notable Bets

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Eight of baseball’s top sluggers will be swinging for the fences tonight at Coors Field in the 2021 MLB Home Run Derby (8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT on ESPN). The competitors include three of the top-7 home run hitters on the season, highlighted by the current home run leader Shohei Ohtani—who has 33 big flies thus far.

Ohtani, who is the even-money favorite to win the regular season home run title at William Hill Nevada, also has the lowest odds for the Derby. After opening atop the board at +300, Ohtani’s price has since lowered to +140.

“Everyone’s just talking Ohtani, he’s definitely the biggest story in baseball,” said Nick Bogdanovich, Director of Trading for William Hill U.S. “I’m hoping that just because he’s in the Home Run Derby that it will lead to a bigger handle. Gallo’s also a monster and Alonso has won it, so there are some other good stories in there too. But it’s no shock that we lose with only one of the eight contestants.”

Next are Joey Gallo at +350, Pete Alonso at +550 and Matt Olson at +800. Gallo ranks fifth in homers with 24 of them, while Olson is one behind at 23. Alonso has 17 of his own, and he is also the defending Home Run Derby champion.

The hometown favorite Trevor Story has the fifth-lowest odds at +900, with Juan Soto close behind at 11/1. Salvador Perez (13/1) and Trey Mancini (16/1) are the two biggest longshots for tonight’s event.

Yet, it’s the home run leader who also leads the way in Home Run Derby action. Ohtani has captured 30% of the total number of tickets and 45% of the total dollars wagered, with one Nevada bettor laying $5,200 on Ohtani +180 for a total potential payout of $14,560.

Gallo and Alonso rank second and third in the two categories. Gallo has snagged 20% of the total number of tickets and 23% of the total dollars wagered, while Alonso has nabbed 15% and 13% respectively.

William Hill is also offering head-to-head odds for the Home Run Derby’s first-round matchups. Ohtani is the biggest chalk, as he’s now -330 after opening at -190 against Soto (+270). The three other first-round matchups haven’t seen their odds budge: Alonso (-230) vs. Perez (+195), Olson (-200) vs. Mancini (+175) and Gallo (-185) vs. Story (+165).

One William Hill Virginia bettor has put $5,700 on Alonso (-190) to advance against Perez for a total potential payout of $8,700.

Check out William Hill’s latest odds and trends for the 2021 MLB Home Run Derby below.

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